Black Friday 2025 – Projected Growth, Sales Forecast & Trends
Black Friday 2025 is set to be one of the largest shopping days in history, with U.S. consumers anticipated to spend $11.7 billion online according to Black Friday estimates, and just over $14.2 billion according to Cyber Monday estimates. Overall, the 2025 holiday season is predicted to be $253.4 billion in online spending, driven by greater discounts, advanced shopping technology, including AI, and a strong number of mobile purchases.
This article reviews the most recent statistics regarding sales on Black Friday 2025, which include sales trends, consumer shopping behavior, use of AI, trends in BNPL payment options, and forecasts by category.
Black Friday 2025: Top Picks
- Sales from Black Friday 2025 are estimated to reach $11.7 billion online.
- Sales from Cyber Monday 2025 are anticipated to reach $14.2 billion.
- Cyber Week sales are predicted to reach $43.7 billion in total online sales, which reflects a 6.3% increase from the previous year.
- Overall, forecasted U.S. online spending for the 2025 holiday season is over $253.4 billion.
- Mobile transactions will account for 56.1% of all holiday shopping transactions.
- Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) is forecasted to give retailers $20.2 billion from BNPL transactions, which is an 11% increase from 2024.
- AI-assisted shopping is predicted to generate 520% more traffic from 2024.
- About 79% of shoppers are projected to make a variety of purchases throughout November and December.
- Total spending on electronics is expected to be $57.5 billion for the holiday season, which is a 4% increase year-over-year.
Black Friday Sales 2025
- Black Friday 2025 is projected to deliver record-breaking sales, with consumers expected to spend $11.7 billion online on Black Friday alone.
- Cyber Monday 2025 is expected to surpass Black Friday with $14.2 billion in online sales.
- Cyber Week is forecast to generate $43.7 billion in online sales, up 6.3% year-over-year.
- There will be 10 separate days during the 2025 holiday season (up from 7 days in 2024) when online spending exceeds $5 billion.
Source: Adobe News
The table below shows the total Black Friday Sales from 2017 to 2025 forecast:
| Year | Black Friday Sales |
|---|---|
| 2025 forecast | $11.7 billion |
| 2024 | $10.8 billion |
| 2023 | $9.8 billion |
| 2022 | $9.12 billion |
| 2021 | $8.92 billion |
| 2020 | $9.03 billion |
| 2019 | $7.4 billion |
| 2018 | $6.2 billion |
| 2017 | $5 billion |
Source: Adobe
- U.S. holiday shopping season online spending is forecast to reach $253.4 billion between November 1 and December 31, 2025.
Source: Adobe Business 1
- Between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. on Black Friday 2024, online shoppers spent an average of $11.3 million/minute.
Source: NPR
- Average consumer spending on gifts during Thanksgiving weekend 2024 was $235, an increase of $8 from 2023.
Source: NY Times
Black Friday Deals Predictions 2025
- Discounts are anticipated to reach a peak value of 28% off items’ original prices on Black Friday in 2025, matching the level seen in 2024.
- Electronics is expected to experience a maximum discount value of 28% off the listed price (versus 30.1% discount in 2024).
- Toys are expected to be marked down by an average of 27%, down from a 28% markdown last year.
- Apparel is expected to be discounted at an average of 25% off the original price (noticeably higher than 23.2% in 2024).
- TVs are expected to have an average discount of 23% off the listed price (versus 24.2%). Furthermore, computers are expected to be discounted by 23% (compared to 22.8% during 2024).
- Sporting goods (19%), appliances (18%), and furniture (18%) will also feature strong price cuts, slightly below 2024 levels.
- The deepest discounts are expected throughout Cyber Week, with Cyber Monday (Dec. 1) serving as the “last call” for the best deals.
Let’s have a look at the estimated discounts in different categories:
| Category | Discount (%) | Peak Discount Day | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electronics | 28% | Cyber Monday | 12/01/2025 |
| Televisions | 23% | Black Friday | 11/28/2025 |
| Toys | 27% | Black Friday | 11/28/2025 |
| Apparel | 25% | Cyber Monday | 12/02/2025 |
| Computers | 23% | Cyber Monday | 12/01/2025 |
| Appliances | 18% | Black Friday | 11/28/2025 |
| Furniture | 18% | Black Friday | 11/28/2025 |
| Sporting Goods | 19% | Thanksgiving | 11/27/2025 |
Source: Adobe News
Black Friday Consumer Trends 2025
Black Friday in 2025 is expected to be the most vibrant shopping season ever. This is predominantly due to a combination of factors, including already available deals, a mobile-first approach to purchases, AI-driven recommendations, and the increasing acceptance of flexible payment methods.
Longer Sales Period
- 79% of shoppers spread their purchases across November and December, while 75% start researching before mid-November.
Source: Impact
- 35% of shoppers begin making purchases on Thanksgiving Day, marking the start of extended sales periods.
Source: Accio
- Amazon began Black Friday sales on November 21, 2024, with some retailers starting even earlier.
Source: Amazon
- One in four consumers (25%) begin shopping as early as October for Black Friday deals.
Source: Sizebay
- The Black Friday event could potentially extend to 11-12 days, running from November 20 to December 1, 2025.
Source: Eva
Increase In Mobile Shopping
- Mobile devices will drive a record 56.1% of online holiday spending in 2025.
- This translates to $142.7 billion in mobile sales, representing an 8.5% year-over-year increase.
- Seven in 10 online retail visits occur on mobile devices during the holiday season.
Source: Adobe Business 1
- In the United States, mobile accounted for 57% of all online Black Friday sales in 2024.
- Mobile sales on Thanksgiving Day 2024 surged to 59% of all online sales.
- For two consecutive years (2022-2023), mobile facilitated over 51% of all Cyber Week online sales.
Source: MobiLoud
BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) Growth
- Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) is projected to drive $20.2 billion in online spending during the 2025 holiday season.
- This represents an 11% year-over-year increase from the 2024 holiday season.
| Year | Spend | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Forecast | $20.2 billion | ~11% |
| 2024 | $18.2 billion | ~10% |
| 2023 | $16.6 billion | ~14% |
| 2022 | $14.5 billion | ~11% |
- BNPL spending during the 2024 holiday season totaled $18.2 billion.
- Cyber Monday 2025 is expected to see $1.04 billion in BNPL transactions, up 5% year-over-year. This will be first time Cyber Monday crosses $1 billion in BNPL transactions.
- Black Friday 2025 BNPL spending is forecast at $761.8 million, up 11% year-over-year.
- 79% of BNPL spending comes through mobile devices during the holiday season.
- This represents $15.6 billion in mobile BNPL transactions, up 8.3% year-over-year.
Source: Adobe News
Growth Of AI
- AI-assisted online shopping traffic is expected to grow 520% during the 2025 holiday season compared to 2024.
- AI traffic to retail sites will peak in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving 2025.
- The data shows that 70% of AI referrals came from desktop devices, while 30% were from mobile devices.
- 40% of AI users employed it for product recommendations during shopping.
- 36% of shoppers used AI tools for finding deals and discounts.
- 30% utilized AI for gift inspiration during the holiday season.
Source: Adobe News
- 52% of U.S. consumers plan to use generative AI for online shopping in 2025, up from 38% who have used it.
Source: Adobe Business 2
- A survey conducted by Sinch drew out the following results:
- 47.9% of consumers believe AI will make their Black Friday shopping easier.
- 49.3% of shoppers say they trust AI recommendations just as much or more than recommendations from real people.
- The top use case for AI chatbots is order tracking, cited by 52.9% of consumers.
- 43.5% use AI for product discovery during shopping.
- 37.9% employ AI chatbots for getting after-hours support.
Source: Sinch
- Conversion rates from AI-referred shoppers are 700% higher than traffic from social media.
Source: ChiefMarketer
Category-Wise Forecasts 2025
- Electronics remain the highest-spending category during the holiday season, projected to rise from $55.3 billion in 2024 to $57.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase.
Furniture & Home Goods show one of the strongest growth rates, increasing from $29.2 billion to $31.1 billion, marking a 6.5% jump as consumers continue investing in home upgrades.
Grocery and Cosmetics are among the fastest-growing categories, expected to expand by 9.3% and 9.1% respectively.
The table below shows category-wise 2024 spend and forecast spend for 2025:
| Category | 2024 Spend | 2025 Forecasted Spend |
|---|---|---|
| Toys | $8.2 billion | $8.8 billion |
| Apparel | $46.6 billion | $47.6 billion |
| Electronics | $55.3 billion | $57.5 billion |
| Furniture & Home Goods | $29.2 billion | $31.1 billion |
| Grocery | $21.5 billion | $23.5 billion |
| Cosmetics | $7.7 billion | $8.4 billion |
| Sporting Goods | $7.8 billion | $8.2 billion |
Source: Adobe Business 1